NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCAT HP
Points 65.2 84.9
Total Points   150.0
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 42.3
Points From 3-Pointers 13.1 23.9
Points From Free Throws 17.1 18.7
Shooting NCAT HP
Field Goals Made 21.8 29.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 60.3
Field Goal % 38.1% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 41.4 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 42.3% 57.6%
3 Pointers Made 4.4 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 16.0 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 27.3% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 17.1 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 24.2 23.9
Free Throw % 70.8% 77.9%
Ball Control NCAT HP
Rebounds 28.3 45.2
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 31.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 13.8
Turnovers 7.2 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.5
Steals 4.0 3.8
Fouls 15.6 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: NC A&T

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCAT HP
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 75.4
% of Possessions with NCAT HP
2 Point Attempt 51.8% 43.0%
3 Point Attempt 20.0% 27.6%
Player Fouled 23.5% 22.2%
Turnover 10.2% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 5.4% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCAT HP
Shot Blocked 5.9% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 20.3% 40.5%