NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WIS ARIZ
Points 74.2 82.5
Total Points   156.7
Points From 2-Pointers 38.1 46.0
Points From 3-Pointers 23.0 20.7
Points From Free Throws 13.2 15.8
Shooting WIS ARIZ
Field Goals Made 26.7 29.9
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 56.5
Field Goal % 43.8% 53.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 23.0
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 38.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.0% 59.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 22.9 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 39.4%
Free Throws Made 13.2 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.6 22.2
Free Throw % 75.1% 71.0%
Ball Control WIS ARIZ
Rebounds 30.6 36.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.3 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 8.1
Turnovers 10.0 10.8
Blocked Shots 1.9 4.0
Steals 6.2 6.1
Fouls 16.4 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Wisconsin

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WIS ARIZ
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.2 70.2
% of Possessions with WIS ARIZ
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 47.6%
3 Point Attempt 27.6% 21.4%
Player Fouled 22.3% 22.6%
Turnover 13.7% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken WIS ARIZ
Shot Blocked 7.2% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 26.7%