NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CARK HAW
Points 63.8 78.9
Total Points   142.8
Points From 2-Pointers 34.7 32.5
Points From 3-Pointers 16.5 29.4
Points From Free Throws 12.7 17.1
Shooting CARK HAW
Field Goals Made 22.8 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 54.7
Field Goal % 39.5% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 16.3
2 Pointers Attempted 40.7 29.6
2 Point Shooting % 42.6% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 9.8
3 Pointers Attempted 17.0 25.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 38.9%
Free Throws Made 12.7 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 23.5
Free Throw % 75.3% 72.5%
Ball Control CARK HAW
Rebounds 31.5 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 29.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 8.3
Turnovers 10.8 10.7
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.1
Steals 6.0 5.0
Fouls 17.1 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Hawaii

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CARK HAW
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.2 69.1
% of Possessions with CARK HAW
2 Point Attempt 51.0% 36.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.3% 31.1%
Player Fouled 20.4% 23.9%
Turnover 15.1% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken CARK HAW
Shot Blocked 3.9% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 20.1% 25.7%