NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IDST FRES
Points 69.3 70.7
Total Points   140.0
Points From 2-Pointers 37.9 41.5
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 17.4
Points From Free Throws 11.4 11.8
Shooting IDST FRES
Field Goals Made 25.6 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 51.9
Field Goal % 44.9% 51.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 20.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.3 36.5
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 56.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 15.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 11.4 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 16.9
Free Throw % 70.0% 69.6%
Ball Control IDST FRES
Rebounds 31.5 30.7
Rebounds - Defensive 21.3 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 6.7
Turnovers 9.2 11.5
Blocked Shots 4.4 1.8
Steals 5.7 5.7
Fouls 14.3 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Fresno St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IDST FRES
Total Possessions 66.5
Effective Scoring Chances 67.5 61.7
% of Possessions with IDST FRES
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 20.6%
Player Fouled 21.9% 21.5%
Turnover 13.9% 17.3%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken IDST FRES
Shot Blocked 3.6% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 30.0% 24.0%