NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SLU SIU
Points 73.4 78.7
Total Points   152.1
Points From 2-Pointers 40.3 32.2
Points From 3-Pointers 15.6 29.1
Points From Free Throws 17.6 17.4
Shooting SLU SIU
Field Goals Made 25.3 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 52.2 55.0
Field Goal % 48.5% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made 20.1 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 28.1
2 Point Shooting % 54.5% 57.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 15.3 26.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 17.6 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 22.5
Free Throw % 75.1% 77.2%
Ball Control SLU SIU
Rebounds 31.1 30.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 22.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 7.9
Turnovers 10.0 8.6
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.4
Steals 4.9 5.2
Fouls 16.9 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: Saint Louis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SLU SIU
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.0 68.1
% of Possessions with SLU SIU
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 35.9%
3 Point Attempt 19.8% 34.4%
Player Fouled 25.8% 24.5%
Turnover 14.6% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken SLU SIU
Shot Blocked 6.4% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 24.7%