NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOW UMES
Points 75.4 65.9
Total Points   141.3
Points From 2-Pointers 33.5 34.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 15.9
Points From Free Throws 19.2 15.2
Shooting HOW UMES
Field Goals Made 24.3 22.7
Field Goals Attempted 53.0 55.9
Field Goal % 45.9% 40.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 32.1 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 46.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.2% 29.4%
Free Throws Made 19.2 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 25.3 21.2
Free Throw % 76.0% 71.8%
Ball Control HOW UMES
Rebounds 38.8 29.7
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 20.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 8.9
Turnovers 13.1 11.0
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.0
Steals 5.6 6.6
Fouls 16.2 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland ES

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOW UMES
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.1 68.9
% of Possessions with HOW UMES
2 Point Attempt 38.5% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 22.2%
Player Fouled 24.2% 22.8%
Turnover 18.5% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOW UMES
Shot Blocked 5.4% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 35.0% 24.3%