NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UAB ARST
Points 81.8 77.9
Total Points   159.7
Points From 2-Pointers 46.7 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 15.4 27.9
Points From Free Throws 19.6 13.2
Shooting UAB ARST
Field Goals Made 28.5 27.7
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 65.3
Field Goal % 47.5% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 23.4 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 45.6 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 51.2% 47.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 14.4 26.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 34.7%
Free Throws Made 19.6 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 26.4 18.8
Free Throw % 74.3% 70.2%
Ball Control UAB ARST
Rebounds 38.2 36.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.9 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 13.3
Turnovers 8.3 9.1
Blocked Shots 5.2 5.2
Steals 5.6 4.9
Fouls 12.9 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UAB ARST
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 75.2 76.3
% of Possessions with UAB ARST
2 Point Attempt 53.3% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 16.8% 30.7%
Player Fouled 23.4% 17.8%
Turnover 11.5% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UAB ARST
Shot Blocked 8.1% 8.9%
Offensive Rebound 32.4% 33.0%