NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CCSU ME
Points 65.9 64.2
Total Points   130.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.3 36.1
Points From 3-Pointers 15.5 17.3
Points From Free Throws 13.0 10.8
Shooting CCSU ME
Field Goals Made 23.8 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.4 56.6
Field Goal % 43.0% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 38.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.5% 46.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 16.9 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 31.9%
Free Throws Made 13.0 10.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 15.1
Free Throw % 71.4% 71.4%
Ball Control CCSU ME
Rebounds 36.3 32.8
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 6.9
Turnovers 11.0 10.8
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.2
Steals 6.7 7.3
Fouls 12.3 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Central Conn

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CCSU ME
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 65.2
% of Possessions with CCSU ME
2 Point Attempt 48.8% 49.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 23.3%
Player Fouled 20.0% 17.8%
Turnover 15.9% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 10.5% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken CCSU ME
Shot Blocked 5.8% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 19.9%