NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DUKE NCST
Points 75.5 71.6
Total Points   147.1
Points From 2-Pointers 36.7 42.1
Points From 3-Pointers 24.5 16.6
Points From Free Throws 14.3 13.0
Shooting DUKE NCST
Field Goals Made 26.5 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 58.4 58.7
Field Goal % 45.3% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 21.0
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 41.6
2 Point Shooting % 50.3% 50.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 17.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 32.5%
Free Throws Made 14.3 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 17.8
Free Throw % 71.6% 72.6%
Ball Control DUKE NCST
Rebounds 36.5 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 8.7
Turnovers 9.3 8.4
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.7
Steals 4.6 5.4
Fouls 14.1 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DUKE NCST
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 69.2
% of Possessions with DUKE NCST
2 Point Attempt 44.9% 52.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 21.6%
Player Fouled 19.5% 20.4%
Turnover 13.5% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken DUKE NCST
Shot Blocked 8.2% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 30.3% 25.1%