NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTU SHSU
Points 66.1 71.6
Total Points   137.7
Points From 2-Pointers 28.9 39.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.8 18.2
Points From Free Throws 15.4 14.2
Shooting MTU SHSU
Field Goals Made 21.7 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 52.7 61.4
Field Goal % 41.2% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 14.5 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 28.8 43.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 44.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 17.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.3% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 15.4 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 19.6
Free Throw % 71.4% 72.3%
Ball Control MTU SHSU
Rebounds 35.1 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 12.1
Turnovers 12.7 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.8 2.3
Steals 4.0 5.6
Fouls 14.7 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Sam Hous St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTU SHSU
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 73.3
% of Possessions with MTU SHSU
2 Point Attempt 36.0% 52.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.9% 20.9%
Player Fouled 23.5% 21.0%
Turnover 18.0% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTU SHSU
Shot Blocked 3.8% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 31.6%