NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST EWU
Points 76.9 79.3
Total Points   156.2
Points From 2-Pointers 30.3 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 33.0 21.1
Points From Free Throws 13.6 19.6
Shooting MTST EWU
Field Goals Made 26.2 26.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 50.7
Field Goal % 45.5% 51.8%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 30.9 31.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.0% 61.7%
3 Pointers Made 11.0 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 26.6 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 41.3% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 13.6 19.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 25.3
Free Throw % 72.4% 77.5%
Ball Control MTST EWU
Rebounds 27.4 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 20.6 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 7.2
Turnovers 10.7 13.4
Blocked Shots 1.9 2.8
Steals 7.8 4.9
Fouls 20.4 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST EWU
Total Possessions 72.7
Effective Scoring Chances 68.8 66.5
% of Possessions with MTST EWU
2 Point Attempt 38.4% 38.6%
3 Point Attempt 33.0% 24.2%
Player Fouled 23.6% 28.1%
Turnover 14.7% 18.4%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 10.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST EWU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 19.8% 25.9%