NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SCU CAL
Points 76.9 74.4
Total Points   151.2
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 35.0
Points From 3-Pointers 24.2 23.1
Points From Free Throws 13.7 16.3
Shooting SCU CAL
Field Goals Made 27.6 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.6 61.7
Field Goal % 44.8% 40.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 38.2 36.3
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 48.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 25.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 30.4%
Free Throws Made 13.7 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 22.2
Free Throw % 69.6% 73.2%
Ball Control SCU CAL
Rebounds 41.1 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 30.0 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 9.8
Turnovers 10.6 8.3
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.2
Steals 3.7 6.0
Fouls 16.2 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Santa Clara

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SCU CAL
Total Possessions 73.6
Effective Scoring Chances 74.1 75.1
% of Possessions with SCU CAL
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 43.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.4% 30.0%
Player Fouled 20.9% 22.0%
Turnover 14.4% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 5.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SCU CAL
Shot Blocked 3.6% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 29.7% 24.6%