NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCLA VILL
Points 61.5 65.6
Total Points   127.1
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 22.2
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 29.8
Points From Free Throws 11.4 13.6
Shooting UCLA VILL
Field Goals Made 22.0 21.0
Field Goals Attempted 54.4 52.5
Field Goal % 40.4% 40.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 11.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.7 23.3
2 Point Shooting % 45.4% 47.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 9.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.7 29.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 11.4 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 17.0
Free Throw % 74.3% 79.7%
Ball Control UCLA VILL
Rebounds 34.0 33.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 6.8
Turnovers 8.7 9.3
Blocked Shots 3.8 1.6
Steals 4.9 4.2
Fouls 14.9 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Villanova

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCLA VILL
Total Possessions 64.8
Effective Scoring Chances 64.0 62.3
% of Possessions with UCLA VILL
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 31.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 39.9%
Player Fouled 23.3% 23.1%
Turnover 13.5% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCLA VILL
Shot Blocked 3.2% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.9% 20.7%