NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CIT NCAT
Points 74.7 65.5
Total Points   140.2
Points From 2-Pointers 43.3 37.2
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 17.1
Points From Free Throws 12.2 11.3
Shooting CIT NCAT
Field Goals Made 28.0 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 57.8
Field Goal % 49.3% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 21.6 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 57.3% 49.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 28.5%
Free Throws Made 12.2 11.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 16.0
Free Throw % 71.4% 70.8%
Ball Control CIT NCAT
Rebounds 38.0 29.4
Rebounds - Defensive 28.7 22.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 7.3
Turnovers 10.2 8.2
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.7
Steals 4.1 5.5
Fouls 13.4 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CIT NCAT
Total Possessions 68.1
Effective Scoring Chances 67.2 67.3
% of Possessions with CIT NCAT
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 24.2% 26.1%
Player Fouled 19.1% 19.6%
Turnover 15.0% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken CIT NCAT
Shot Blocked 6.6% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.5% 20.4%