NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CIT MER
Points 69.5 74.0
Total Points   143.5
Points From 2-Pointers 38.2 44.8
Points From 3-Pointers 15.8 20.4
Points From Free Throws 15.5 8.7
Shooting CIT MER
Field Goals Made 24.4 29.2
Field Goals Attempted 52.9 59.2
Field Goal % 46.1% 49.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 22.4
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 41.0
2 Point Shooting % 52.1% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 16.3 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 15.5 8.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 12.8
Free Throw % 71.4% 67.9%
Ball Control CIT MER
Rebounds 32.3 31.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 8.5
Turnovers 11.1 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.2 4.6
Steals 4.9 6.3
Fouls 11.4 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Mercer

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CIT MER
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 65.7 67.2
% of Possessions with CIT MER
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 52.9%
3 Point Attempt 20.7% 23.4%
Player Fouled 24.4% 16.8%
Turnover 16.2% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CIT MER
Shot Blocked 7.8% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.0% 26.5%