NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AAMU VAN
Points 62.7 75.2
Total Points   137.9
Points From 2-Pointers 35.4 33.8
Points From 3-Pointers 12.9 21.2
Points From Free Throws 14.4 20.3
Shooting AAMU VAN
Field Goals Made 22.0 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 57.1
Field Goal % 39.4% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 41.4 34.0
2 Point Shooting % 42.8% 49.7%
3 Pointers Made 4.3 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 14.5 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 29.6% 30.5%
Free Throws Made 14.4 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 28.7
Free Throw % 72.3% 70.7%
Ball Control AAMU VAN
Rebounds 35.4 39.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 12.7
Turnovers 13.8 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.7
Steals 5.0 8.1
Fouls 18.7 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Vanderbilt

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AAMU VAN
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 68.4 75.0
% of Possessions with AAMU VAN
2 Point Attempt 49.4% 39.5%
3 Point Attempt 17.3% 26.9%
Player Fouled 19.9% 25.9%
Turnover 19.1% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 11.2% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken AAMU VAN
Shot Blocked 6.5% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 33.3%