NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GONZ USC
Points 80.7 72.5
Total Points   153.2
Points From 2-Pointers 44.1 36.7
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 23.8
Points From Free Throws 13.5 12.0
Shooting GONZ USC
Field Goals Made 29.8 26.3
Field Goals Attempted 62.2 61.5
Field Goal % 47.9% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 22.0 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 42.0 39.9
2 Point Shooting % 52.5% 46.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 21.6
3 Point Shooting % 38.2% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 13.5 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 17.3
Free Throw % 73.6% 69.5%
Ball Control GONZ USC
Rebounds 38.7 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 10.5
Turnovers 9.8 10.3
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.9
Steals 6.1 5.8
Fouls 14.1 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: USC

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GONZ USC
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 73.3 72.0
% of Possessions with GONZ USC
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 47.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 25.8%
Player Fouled 19.4% 19.7%
Turnover 13.7% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken GONZ USC
Shot Blocked 6.4% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 32.6% 27.8%