NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSST GT
Points 75.9 68.9
Total Points   144.8
Points From 2-Pointers 39.3 33.7
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 23.2
Points From Free Throws 13.6 12.0
Shooting MSST GT
Field Goals Made 27.3 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 61.6 58.3
Field Goal % 44.3% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 32.0
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 25.0 26.3
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 29.5%
Free Throws Made 13.6 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 16.3
Free Throw % 65.5% 73.6%
Ball Control MSST GT
Rebounds 38.3 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 10.1
Turnovers 8.6 11.9
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.3
Steals 7.6 4.2
Fouls 13.7 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Miss State

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSST GT
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 74.4 68.8
% of Possessions with MSST GT
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 39.2%
3 Point Attempt 29.6% 32.2%
Player Fouled 20.4% 19.5%
Turnover 12.2% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 10.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSST GT
Shot Blocked 5.7% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 32.6% 28.2%