NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USF UTSA
Points 83.0 71.9
Total Points   154.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.2 29.7
Points From 3-Pointers 31.7 26.3
Points From Free Throws 17.0 15.9
Shooting USF UTSA
Field Goals Made 27.7 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 61.7
Field Goal % 45.9% 38.3%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 14.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 34.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.4% 43.7%
3 Pointers Made 10.6 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 26.4 27.7
3 Point Shooting % 40.1% 31.6%
Free Throws Made 17.0 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 22.4
Free Throw % 72.6% 71.1%
Ball Control USF UTSA
Rebounds 37.6 40.1
Rebounds - Defensive 29.0 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 12.4
Turnovers 7.7 10.3
Blocked Shots 4.3 3.4
Steals 5.5 4.0
Fouls 15.1 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: UTSA

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USF UTSA
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 74.0 75.3
% of Possessions with USF UTSA
2 Point Attempt 40.9% 39.0%
3 Point Attempt 31.8% 31.7%
Player Fouled 23.2% 20.7%
Turnover 10.5% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken USF UTSA
Shot Blocked 5.7% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 29.9%