NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LOU VT
Points 69.9 81.8
Total Points   151.7
Points From 2-Pointers 40.3 38.3
Points From 3-Pointers 13.9 26.4
Points From Free Throws 15.7 17.1
Shooting LOU VT
Field Goals Made 24.8 27.9
Field Goals Attempted 54.2 54.2
Field Goal % 45.7% 51.6%
2 Pointers Made 20.1 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 30.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.8% 62.4%
3 Pointers Made 4.6 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 15.3 23.5
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 15.7 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 21.4
Free Throw % 74.2% 79.8%
Ball Control LOU VT
Rebounds 30.4 30.8
Rebounds - Defensive 22.3 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 6.3
Turnovers 11.7 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.6
Steals 5.3 6.1
Fouls 16.5 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LOU VT
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.3 67.1
% of Possessions with LOU VT
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 39.3%
3 Point Attempt 19.1% 30.1%
Player Fouled 22.9% 23.3%
Turnover 16.5% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken LOU VT
Shot Blocked 4.9% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 22.1%