NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BALL UALR
Points 71.2 75.8
Total Points   147.0
Points From 2-Pointers 28.7 45.1
Points From 3-Pointers 23.8 19.2
Points From Free Throws 18.7 11.5
Shooting BALL UALR
Field Goals Made 22.3 29.0
Field Goals Attempted 54.4 61.2
Field Goal % 41.0% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 14.4 22.6
2 Pointers Attempted 32.1 43.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 18.7 11.5
Free Throws Attempted 24.0 15.7
Free Throw % 77.8% 73.1%
Ball Control BALL UALR
Rebounds 32.2 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 10.7
Turnovers 11.5 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.7
Steals 4.5 5.6
Fouls 12.6 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Ball St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BALL UALR
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.4 71.3
% of Possessions with BALL UALR
2 Point Attempt 39.3% 52.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.2% 21.0%
Player Fouled 24.4% 17.6%
Turnover 16.1% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken BALL UALR
Shot Blocked 7.8% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 31.0%