NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVA DUKE
Points 60.5 65.7
Total Points   126.2
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 31.7
Points From 3-Pointers 15.8 22.8
Points From Free Throws 7.9 11.2
Shooting UVA DUKE
Field Goals Made 23.7 23.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 56.6
Field Goal % 41.5% 41.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 15.8
2 Pointers Attempted 40.5 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 45.4% 46.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 16.5 22.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 7.9 11.2
Free Throws Attempted 12.7 15.7
Free Throw % 62.1% 71.6%
Ball Control UVA DUKE
Rebounds 32.0 38.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 10.8
Turnovers 7.2 9.0
Blocked Shots 6.5 3.7
Steals 5.1 4.8
Fouls 11.5 11.4

Playing Style Advantage: Duke

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVA DUKE
Total Possessions 63.5
Effective Scoring Chances 64.2 65.3
% of Possessions with UVA DUKE
2 Point Attempt 55.6% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 29.7%
Player Fouled 18.0% 18.2%
Turnover 11.4% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVA DUKE
Shot Blocked 6.8% 11.6%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 31.0%