NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EKY PEAY
Points 78.5 74.5
Total Points   153.0
Points From 2-Pointers 43.8 37.2
Points From 3-Pointers 18.6 22.2
Points From Free Throws 16.1 15.1
Shooting EKY PEAY
Field Goals Made 28.1 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.5 64.6
Field Goal % 47.2% 40.3%
2 Pointers Made 21.9 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 42.1 45.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 41.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 17.4 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 16.1 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 21.3
Free Throw % 69.3% 70.9%
Ball Control EKY PEAY
Rebounds 41.3 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 29.0 23.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.3 12.4
Turnovers 8.9 6.8
Blocked Shots 6.0 2.4
Steals 3.4 5.9
Fouls 14.1 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: E Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EKY PEAY
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 74.1 76.3
% of Possessions with EKY PEAY
2 Point Attempt 50.2% 52.9%
3 Point Attempt 20.7% 22.7%
Player Fouled 21.7% 19.9%
Turnover 12.6% 9.6%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 4.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken EKY PEAY
Shot Blocked 3.8% 10.1%
Offensive Rebound 34.6% 29.9%