NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VAN ARK
Points 71.6 78.5
Total Points   150.1
Points From 2-Pointers 36.6 40.4
Points From 3-Pointers 17.0 20.6
Points From Free Throws 17.9 17.5
Shooting VAN ARK
Field Goals Made 24.0 27.1
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 57.5
Field Goal % 39.8% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.8 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 45.9% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 19.8
3 Point Shooting % 27.9% 34.7%
Free Throws Made 17.9 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.3 22.8
Free Throw % 70.7% 76.5%
Ball Control VAN ARK
Rebounds 35.7 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 29.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 8.1
Turnovers 9.1 10.5
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.3
Steals 5.6 4.6
Fouls 16.6 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Vanderbilt

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VAN ARK
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 75.1 71.3
% of Possessions with VAN ARK
2 Point Attempt 46.4% 45.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 24.0%
Player Fouled 23.5% 22.5%
Turnover 12.3% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken VAN ARK
Shot Blocked 7.5% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.0% 24.2%