NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALA PUR
Points 81.2 86.5
Total Points   167.8
Points From 2-Pointers 37.0 43.0
Points From 3-Pointers 33.1 21.4
Points From Free Throws 11.1 22.2
Shooting ALA PUR
Field Goals Made 29.5 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 67.5 59.2
Field Goal % 43.8% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 21.5
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 39.3
2 Point Shooting % 52.7% 54.7%
3 Pointers Made 11.0 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 32.4 19.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 11.1 22.2
Free Throws Attempted 14.5 30.4
Free Throw % 76.4% 73.0%
Ball Control ALA PUR
Rebounds 32.9 41.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 13.1
Turnovers 8.8 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.4
Steals 6.0 5.6
Fouls 20.3 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALA PUR
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 76.2 77.8
% of Possessions with ALA PUR
2 Point Attempt 40.6% 44.3%
3 Point Attempt 37.5% 22.5%
Player Fouled 18.0% 27.3%
Turnover 11.9% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALA PUR
Shot Blocked 5.8% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.2% 37.1%