NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALA FLA
Points 94.1 88.7
Total Points   182.8
Points From 2-Pointers 44.3 45.2
Points From 3-Pointers 29.6 21.3
Points From Free Throws 20.2 22.2
Shooting ALA FLA
Field Goals Made 32.0 29.7
Field Goals Attempted 66.6 66.3
Field Goal % 48.1% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 22.2 22.6
2 Pointers Attempted 39.8 44.1
2 Point Shooting % 55.7% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 9.9 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 26.8 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 31.9%
Free Throws Made 20.2 22.2
Free Throws Attempted 26.4 30.3
Free Throw % 76.4% 73.2%
Ball Control ALA FLA
Rebounds 38.7 40.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.9 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 14.1
Turnovers 9.8 9.4
Blocked Shots 4.3 5.6
Steals 6.2 6.7
Fouls 18.6 18.4

Playing Style Advantage: Florida

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALA FLA
Total Possessions 79.8
Effective Scoring Chances 81.8 84.5
% of Possessions with ALA FLA
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 46.1%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 23.2%
Player Fouled 23.1% 23.4%
Turnover 12.2% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALA FLA
Shot Blocked 8.5% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 31.2% 34.4%