NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HC BC
Points 62.2 84.1
Total Points   146.2
Points From 2-Pointers 31.1 39.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 31.8
Points From Free Throws 8.3 12.7
Shooting HC BC
Field Goals Made 23.1 30.4
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 59.1
Field Goal % 40.8% 51.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.5 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 34.9 35.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.6% 55.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 10.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 45.3%
Free Throws Made 8.3 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 12.4 17.1
Free Throw % 66.3% 74.4%
Ball Control HC BC
Rebounds 29.7 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 8.1
Turnovers 9.5 5.8
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.5
Steals 3.2 5.6
Fouls 14.3 11.8

Playing Style Advantage: Holy Cross

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HC BC
Total Possessions 66.7
Effective Scoring Chances 63.9 69.0
% of Possessions with HC BC
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 29.3% 30.8%
Player Fouled 17.6% 21.5%
Turnover 14.3% 8.7%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 4.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken HC BC
Shot Blocked 6.0% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 19.0% 26.1%