NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ISU UCF
Points 68.5 62.3
Total Points   130.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.9 28.2
Points From 3-Pointers 19.6 19.4
Points From Free Throws 17.0 14.7
Shooting ISU UCF
Field Goals Made 22.5 20.6
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 51.7
Field Goal % 41.6% 39.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.0 14.1
2 Pointers Attempted 35.8 29.8
2 Point Shooting % 44.6% 47.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.3 21.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 29.5%
Free Throws Made 17.0 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 24.0 21.4
Free Throw % 70.8% 68.6%
Ball Control ISU UCF
Rebounds 33.1 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 11.3
Turnovers 10.8 14.9
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.8
Steals 8.4 7.1
Fouls 15.5 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: UCF

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ISU UCF
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 65.9
% of Possessions with ISU UCF
2 Point Attempt 44.2% 36.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 26.7%
Player Fouled 25.5% 22.3%
Turnover 15.5% 21.5%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 12.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ISU UCF
Shot Blocked 9.4% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 27.1% 32.3%