NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LEM SFPA
Points 71.7 66.0
Total Points   137.7
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 32.2
Points From 3-Pointers 27.6 23.4
Points From Free Throws 12.6 10.4
Shooting LEM SFPA
Field Goals Made 24.9 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 56.1 58.0
Field Goal % 44.4% 41.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 30.2 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 45.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 26.0 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 34.1%
Free Throws Made 12.6 10.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 17.3
Free Throw % 77.1% 60.1%
Ball Control LEM SFPA
Rebounds 32.7 38.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 12.5
Turnovers 9.6 11.4
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.9
Steals 6.4 4.9
Fouls 13.5 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: St Fran (PA)

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LEM SFPA
Total Possessions 68.1
Effective Scoring Chances 65.9 69.2
% of Possessions with LEM SFPA
2 Point Attempt 39.3% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 33.9% 27.9%
Player Fouled 20.4% 19.8%
Turnover 14.1% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken LEM SFPA
Shot Blocked 5.1% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 22.4% 33.1%