NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SF ASU
Points 71.7 64.9
Total Points   136.6
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 30.8
Points From 3-Pointers 25.6 18.8
Points From Free Throws 10.9 15.3
Shooting SF ASU
Field Goals Made 26.1 21.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 52.9
Field Goal % 44.8% 40.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 32.8
2 Point Shooting % 53.9% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 25.7 20.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 31.1%
Free Throws Made 10.9 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 14.7 23.5
Free Throw % 74.2% 65.3%
Ball Control SF ASU
Rebounds 38.8 31.4
Rebounds - Defensive 29.7 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 6.2
Turnovers 12.8 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.4
Steals 6.5 6.8
Fouls 17.7 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Arizona St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SF ASU
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.9 66.9
% of Possessions with SF ASU
2 Point Attempt 40.0% 41.6%
3 Point Attempt 31.4% 25.5%
Player Fouled 18.8% 24.7%
Turnover 17.8% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SF ASU
Shot Blocked 4.6% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 17.3%