NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCCU MORG
Points 78.5 72.8
Total Points   151.4
Points From 2-Pointers 38.8 46.1
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 11.2
Points From Free Throws 19.9 15.5
Shooting NCCU MORG
Field Goals Made 26.0 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 58.4
Field Goal % 46.4% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 23.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.7 42.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.6% 53.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 3.7
3 Pointers Attempted 18.4 15.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 24.1%
Free Throws Made 19.9 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 28.9 20.6
Free Throw % 69.0% 75.2%
Ball Control NCCU MORG
Rebounds 35.5 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 10.7
Turnovers 10.5 11.5
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.6
Steals 6.4 4.3
Fouls 14.7 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Morgan St

Expected Effect: +1.0 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCCU MORG
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 73.7 71.6
% of Possessions with NCCU MORG
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 51.0%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 18.5%
Player Fouled 24.9% 20.3%
Turnover 14.5% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCCU MORG
Shot Blocked 6.2% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 33.2% 30.9%