NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EWU AFA
Points 76.3 72.0
Total Points   148.4
Points From 2-Pointers 33.0 26.8
Points From 3-Pointers 24.3 33.2
Points From Free Throws 19.1 12.0
Shooting EWU AFA
Field Goals Made 24.6 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 47.2 54.0
Field Goal % 52.1% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 13.4
2 Pointers Attempted 27.0 26.4
2 Point Shooting % 61.0% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 11.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 27.6
3 Point Shooting % 40.1% 40.1%
Free Throws Made 19.1 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 24.7 17.5
Free Throw % 77.5% 68.7%
Ball Control EWU AFA
Rebounds 31.8 26.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 18.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 7.9
Turnovers 12.3 10.6
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.0
Steals 4.6 6.8
Fouls 16.3 18.9

Playing Style Advantage: Air Force

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EWU AFA
Total Possessions 67.3
Effective Scoring Chances 62.2 64.6
% of Possessions with EWU AFA
2 Point Attempt 35.7% 34.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.6% 36.1%
Player Fouled 28.1% 24.2%
Turnover 18.3% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken EWU AFA
Shot Blocked 5.7% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 28.0% 24.2%