NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AMER VMI
Points 75.7 64.4
Total Points   140.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.3 34.0
Points From 3-Pointers 26.5 20.3
Points From Free Throws 11.9 10.1
Shooting AMER VMI
Field Goals Made 27.5 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.4 54.7
Field Goal % 47.1% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.5 34.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.7% 49.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 24.9 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 11.9 10.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 14.3
Free Throw % 71.6% 70.4%
Ball Control AMER VMI
Rebounds 35.4 31.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 6.9
Turnovers 9.9 12.9
Blocked Shots 1.4 1.8
Steals 7.2 4.3
Fouls 14.1 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: VMI

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AMER VMI
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.0 64.0
% of Possessions with AMER VMI
2 Point Attempt 42.0% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 26.4%
Player Fouled 20.5% 20.1%
Turnover 14.2% 18.4%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 10.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken AMER VMI
Shot Blocked 3.3% 2.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 20.7%