NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MORE NORAL
Points 77.9 65.7
Total Points   143.6
Points From 2-Pointers 36.1 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 25.8 17.3
Points From Free Throws 15.9 15.0
Shooting MORE NORAL
Field Goals Made 26.7 22.5
Field Goals Attempted 55.8 57.2
Field Goal % 47.8% 39.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 32.9 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 54.9% 42.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 22.9 17.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 15.9 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 19.4
Free Throw % 73.2% 77.2%
Ball Control MORE NORAL
Rebounds 38.5 30.5
Rebounds - Defensive 28.7 22.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 7.9
Turnovers 9.2 8.4
Blocked Shots 4.3 2.6
Steals 4.3 4.6
Fouls 15.6 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Morehead St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MORE NORAL
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.2 68.1
% of Possessions with MORE NORAL
2 Point Attempt 41.4% 50.5%
3 Point Attempt 28.8% 22.5%
Player Fouled 22.3% 22.8%
Turnover 13.5% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MORE NORAL
Shot Blocked 4.6% 7.9%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 21.6%