NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring COPP NAVY
Points 58.3 69.0
Total Points   127.3
Points From 2-Pointers 30.7 33.9
Points From 3-Pointers 15.3 18.2
Points From Free Throws 12.3 16.9
Shooting COPP NAVY
Field Goals Made 20.5 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 51.3 56.0
Field Goal % 39.9% 41.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 36.3
2 Point Shooting % 45.1% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.3 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 29.6% 30.8%
Free Throws Made 12.3 16.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 23.8
Free Throw % 72.6% 71.0%
Ball Control COPP NAVY
Rebounds 30.3 40.0
Rebounds - Defensive 21.6 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 15.3
Turnovers 14.1 11.4
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.5
Steals 5.0 7.3
Fouls 16.4 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Navy

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats COPP NAVY
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 62.4 71.7
% of Possessions with COPP NAVY
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 43.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.3% 23.4%
Player Fouled 21.7% 24.2%
Turnover 20.8% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken COPP NAVY
Shot Blocked 4.5% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.0% 41.5%