NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GASO MSU
Points 63.6 82.9
Total Points   146.4
Points From 2-Pointers 25.4 42.8
Points From 3-Pointers 27.6 20.4
Points From Free Throws 10.6 19.7
Shooting GASO MSU
Field Goals Made 21.9 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 57.6
Field Goal % 38.7% 49.0%
2 Pointers Made 12.7 21.4
2 Pointers Attempted 29.4 39.8
2 Point Shooting % 43.2% 53.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 27.2 17.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 10.6 19.7
Free Throws Attempted 14.8 27.1
Free Throw % 71.5% 72.5%
Ball Control GASO MSU
Rebounds 29.2 40.9
Rebounds - Defensive 21.1 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 12.5
Turnovers 13.2 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.7 4.6
Steals 4.7 7.4
Fouls 18.7 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GASO MSU
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 65.4 74.1
% of Possessions with GASO MSU
2 Point Attempt 36.5% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 33.8% 21.0%
Player Fouled 18.5% 26.6%
Turnover 18.8% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken GASO MSU
Shot Blocked 8.1% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.4% 37.3%