NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AFA PORT
Points 76.2 69.6
Total Points   145.8
Points From 2-Pointers 28.7 29.7
Points From 3-Pointers 39.8 26.4
Points From Free Throws 7.8 13.5
Shooting AFA PORT
Field Goals Made 27.6 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 51.3
Field Goal % 48.4% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 14.3 14.8
2 Pointers Attempted 24.6 28.2
2 Point Shooting % 58.3% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 13.3 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 32.4 23.0
3 Point Shooting % 40.9% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 7.8 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 11.3 19.0
Free Throw % 68.7% 70.9%
Ball Control AFA PORT
Rebounds 29.7 32.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 7.7
Turnovers 8.4 10.6
Blocked Shots 3.6 1.9
Steals 6.0 3.4
Fouls 16.0 12.7

Playing Style Advantage: Air Force

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AFA PORT
Total Possessions 65.5
Effective Scoring Chances 64.0 62.6
% of Possessions with AFA PORT
2 Point Attempt 33.6% 37.8%
3 Point Attempt 44.4% 30.9%
Player Fouled 19.3% 24.5%
Turnover 12.8% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 5.2% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken AFA PORT
Shot Blocked 3.7% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 21.9% 25.2%