NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BGSU USI
Points 74.3 68.9
Total Points   143.2
Points From 2-Pointers 34.6 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 16.5 21.3
Points From Free Throws 23.2 14.0
Shooting BGSU USI
Field Goals Made 22.8 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 52.4 57.1
Field Goal % 43.5% 41.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 33.8 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 44.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.7% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 23.2 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 32.0 18.7
Free Throw % 72.7% 75.1%
Ball Control BGSU USI
Rebounds 37.0 33.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 8.4
Turnovers 9.8 11.7
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.6
Steals 6.1 5.3
Fouls 15.7 20.5

Playing Style Advantage: Bowling Grn

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BGSU USI
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 68.7
% of Possessions with BGSU USI
2 Point Attempt 40.9% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.4% 24.1%
Player Fouled 28.5% 21.7%
Turnover 13.6% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken BGSU USI
Shot Blocked 4.7% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 23.4%