NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILL RUTG
Points 79.2 64.8
Total Points   144.0
Points From 2-Pointers 35.8 38.8
Points From 3-Pointers 25.4 13.9
Points From Free Throws 18.0 12.1
Shooting ILL RUTG
Field Goals Made 26.4 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 64.5
Field Goal % 44.1% 37.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 48.4
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 40.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 24.3 16.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 28.7%
Free Throws Made 18.0 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 24.4 17.9
Free Throw % 73.8% 67.7%
Ball Control ILL RUTG
Rebounds 46.0 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 32.3 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 13.7 11.0
Turnovers 10.7 7.9
Blocked Shots 4.3 4.6
Steals 4.4 5.7
Fouls 13.0 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +1.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILL RUTG
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 74.8 74.9
% of Possessions with ILL RUTG
2 Point Attempt 40.6% 57.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 19.1%
Player Fouled 21.6% 18.0%
Turnover 14.9% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILL RUTG
Shot Blocked 7.2% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 37.2% 25.4%