NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ND UNC
Points 62.5 76.8
Total Points   139.3
Points From 2-Pointers 28.6 39.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.3 22.4
Points From Free Throws 11.6 15.3
Shooting ND UNC
Field Goals Made 21.7 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 61.2
Field Goal % 37.7% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 14.3 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 34.2 39.4
2 Point Shooting % 41.8% 49.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 11.6 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 15.7 20.3
Free Throw % 73.7% 75.4%
Ball Control ND UNC
Rebounds 33.2 41.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 29.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 11.5
Turnovers 10.8 7.4
Blocked Shots 2.5 4.8
Steals 4.1 5.8
Fouls 14.8 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Notre Dame

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ND UNC
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 73.6
% of Possessions with ND UNC
2 Point Attempt 43.1% 48.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.5% 26.5%
Player Fouled 19.7% 21.2%
Turnover 15.5% 10.7%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ND UNC
Shot Blocked 8.0% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 20.8% 31.3%