NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ORU KSU
Points 64.4 78.5
Total Points   142.9
Points From 2-Pointers 27.9 38.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 22.3
Points From Free Throws 13.3 17.9
Shooting ORU KSU
Field Goals Made 21.7 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 59.8 57.3
Field Goal % 36.3% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 14.0 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.9 35.8
2 Point Shooting % 39.9% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.1% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 13.3 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.2 25.0
Free Throw % 77.1% 71.9%
Ball Control ORU KSU
Rebounds 30.8 43.8
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 31.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 12.1
Turnovers 9.6 10.4
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.9
Steals 5.4 4.7
Fouls 17.7 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Kansas St

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ORU KSU
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 72.9
% of Possessions with ORU KSU
2 Point Attempt 43.2% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 25.4%
Player Fouled 18.6% 24.9%
Turnover 13.4% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ORU KSU
Shot Blocked 6.9% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 20.4% 34.7%