NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CAN PITT
Points 58.7 79.1
Total Points   137.8
Points From 2-Pointers 32.1 39.7
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 26.5
Points From Free Throws 7.9 12.9
Shooting CAN PITT
Field Goals Made 22.3 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 60.7
Field Goal % 38.8% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 35.0 37.8
2 Point Shooting % 46.0% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 27.6% 38.6%
Free Throws Made 7.9 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 13.2 17.6
Free Throw % 59.8% 73.0%
Ball Control CAN PITT
Rebounds 34.0 38.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 10.1
Turnovers 11.7 6.7
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.0
Steals 3.6 6.1
Fouls 14.8 11.6

Playing Style Advantage: Pittsburgh

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CAN PITT
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 65.7 71.1
% of Possessions with CAN PITT
2 Point Attempt 44.3% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 28.9%
Player Fouled 17.0% 21.9%
Turnover 17.3% 9.9%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 5.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CAN PITT
Shot Blocked 6.7% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 29.2%