NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARPB CONN
Points 55.8 99.4
Total Points   155.2
Points From 2-Pointers 22.4 50.2
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 31.2
Points From Free Throws 13.5 18.0
Shooting ARPB CONN
Field Goals Made 17.8 35.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.4 62.6
Field Goal % 31.6% 56.7%
2 Pointers Made 11.2 25.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 33.1
2 Point Shooting % 33.1% 75.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 29.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 13.5 18.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 24.0
Free Throw % 75.0% 75.1%
Ball Control ARPB CONN
Rebounds 22.5 48.3
Rebounds - Defensive 17.0 34.5
Rebounds - Offensive 5.6 13.8
Turnovers 10.8 6.9
Blocked Shots 1.0 6.6
Steals 3.4 5.8
Fouls 16.0 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Ark Pine Bl

Expected Effect: +1.0 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARPB CONN
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 65.7 77.8
% of Possessions with ARPB CONN
2 Point Attempt 42.9% 38.9%
3 Point Attempt 28.4% 34.7%
Player Fouled 21.0% 22.6%
Turnover 15.2% 9.7%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 4.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARPB CONN
Shot Blocked 10.6% 1.8%
Offensive Rebound 13.9% 44.8%