NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WKU BUFF
Points 82.8 69.5
Total Points   152.3
Points From 2-Pointers 47.7 34.0
Points From 3-Pointers 21.2 23.7
Points From Free Throws 13.8 11.8
Shooting WKU BUFF
Field Goals Made 30.9 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 66.9 60.4
Field Goal % 46.2% 41.3%
2 Pointers Made 23.9 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 46.7 32.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 51.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 27.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 28.7%
Free Throws Made 13.8 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 16.5
Free Throw % 72.7% 71.6%
Ball Control WKU BUFF
Rebounds 41.6 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 29.9 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 8.0
Turnovers 10.5 14.0
Blocked Shots 3.0 5.5
Steals 8.1 5.6
Fouls 13.8 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: W Kentucky

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WKU BUFF
Total Possessions 76.7
Effective Scoring Chances 77.9 70.6
% of Possessions with WKU BUFF
2 Point Attempt 51.5% 38.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.3% 32.0%
Player Fouled 18.3% 17.9%
Turnover 13.7% 18.3%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 10.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken WKU BUFF
Shot Blocked 9.3% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 30.6% 21.1%