NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VT LOU
Points 81.8 69.9
Total Points   151.7
Points From 2-Pointers 38.3 40.3
Points From 3-Pointers 26.4 13.9
Points From Free Throws 17.1 15.7
Shooting VT LOU
Field Goals Made 27.9 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 54.2 54.2
Field Goal % 51.6% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 30.7 38.9
2 Point Shooting % 62.4% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 23.5 15.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 30.2%
Free Throws Made 17.1 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 21.2
Free Throw % 79.8% 74.2%
Ball Control VT LOU
Rebounds 30.8 30.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 22.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.3 8.1
Turnovers 10.1 11.7
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.2
Steals 6.1 5.3
Fouls 16.2 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VT LOU
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.1 67.3
% of Possessions with VT LOU
2 Point Attempt 39.3% 48.6%
3 Point Attempt 30.1% 19.1%
Player Fouled 23.3% 22.9%
Turnover 14.3% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken VT LOU
Shot Blocked 4.1% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 24.9%