NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSUS LBSU
Points 66.7 75.0
Total Points   141.7
Points From 2-Pointers 24.8 44.2
Points From 3-Pointers 29.7 14.8
Points From Free Throws 12.1 16.0
Shooting CSUS LBSU
Field Goals Made 22.3 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 57.4
Field Goal % 39.7% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 12.4 22.1
2 Pointers Attempted 28.1 41.6
2 Point Shooting % 44.1% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 9.9 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 28.1 15.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 12.1 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 22.4
Free Throw % 71.7% 71.5%
Ball Control CSUS LBSU
Rebounds 34.3 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 10.7
Turnovers 13.8 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.3 4.4
Steals 4.8 7.7
Fouls 17.2 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Sac State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSUS LBSU
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 71.3
% of Possessions with CSUS LBSU
2 Point Attempt 34.1% 51.1%
3 Point Attempt 34.0% 19.4%
Player Fouled 20.0% 24.7%
Turnover 19.7% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 11.1% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSUS LBSU
Shot Blocked 7.8% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 30.4% 31.5%