NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA COLO
Points 73.7 81.9
Total Points   155.6
Points From 2-Pointers 40.1 42.9
Points From 3-Pointers 24.5 27.2
Points From Free Throws 9.1 11.8
Shooting MIA COLO
Field Goals Made 28.2 30.5
Field Goals Attempted 62.1 60.2
Field Goal % 45.4% 50.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.1 21.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.6 37.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.4% 57.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 24.5 23.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 39.5%
Free Throws Made 9.1 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 12.7 15.6
Free Throw % 71.6% 76.0%
Ball Control MIA COLO
Rebounds 29.7 37.7
Rebounds - Defensive 21.9 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 9.7
Turnovers 9.6 11.4
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.3
Steals 7.2 6.2
Fouls 12.4 11.7

Playing Style Advantage: Colorado

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA COLO
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 69.9
% of Possessions with MIA COLO
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 45.0%
3 Point Attempt 30.5% 27.8%
Player Fouled 16.3% 17.3%
Turnover 13.3% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA COLO
Shot Blocked 3.8% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 21.7% 30.6%