NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIU MONM
Points 71.1 76.1
Total Points   147.1
Points From 2-Pointers 30.1 35.9
Points From 3-Pointers 25.5 23.9
Points From Free Throws 15.5 16.3
Shooting NIU MONM
Field Goals Made 23.5 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.4 61.9
Field Goal % 42.5% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 15.1 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 30.8 39.9
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 45.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 24.6 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 15.5 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 23.0 22.7
Free Throw % 67.4% 71.6%
Ball Control NIU MONM
Rebounds 37.3 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 12.8
Turnovers 11.6 8.3
Blocked Shots 5.1 3.0
Steals 3.7 6.9
Fouls 14.6 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: N Illinois

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIU MONM
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 75.2
% of Possessions with NIU MONM
2 Point Attempt 37.3% 46.7%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 25.8%
Player Fouled 23.8% 20.7%
Turnover 16.4% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 5.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIU MONM
Shot Blocked 4.9% 9.3%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 32.7%