NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIU TOL
Points 75.8 82.7
Total Points   158.5
Points From 2-Pointers 41.5 42.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.2 20.8
Points From Free Throws 12.1 19.3
Shooting NIU TOL
Field Goals Made 28.1 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 59.9
Field Goal % 49.1% 47.2%
2 Pointers Made 20.7 21.3
2 Pointers Attempted 35.3 42.6
2 Point Shooting % 58.7% 50.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 17.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 40.1%
Free Throws Made 12.1 19.3
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 26.0
Free Throw % 67.4% 74.2%
Ball Control NIU TOL
Rebounds 33.7 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 10.0
Turnovers 12.6 8.4
Blocked Shots 5.8 1.6
Steals 4.0 7.0
Fouls 16.8 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: N Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIU TOL
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 69.0 74.4
% of Possessions with NIU TOL
2 Point Attempt 42.9% 50.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 20.3%
Player Fouled 21.1% 23.1%
Turnover 17.3% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIU TOL
Shot Blocked 2.8% 10.1%
Offensive Rebound 27.1% 28.7%