NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VMI UNCG
Points 62.7 84.7
Total Points   147.4
Points From 2-Pointers 30.6 37.9
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 34.1
Points From Free Throws 12.3 12.7
Shooting VMI UNCG
Field Goals Made 21.9 30.3
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 63.6
Field Goal % 39.3% 47.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.2 35.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 11.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 27.9
3 Point Shooting % 30.7% 40.8%
Free Throws Made 12.3 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.5 17.5
Free Throw % 70.4% 72.8%
Ball Control VMI UNCG
Rebounds 32.6 40.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 11.3
Turnovers 14.4 9.7
Blocked Shots 1.6 3.0
Steals 4.7 9.2
Fouls 14.4 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: VMI

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VMI UNCG
Total Possessions 73.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.7 74.9
% of Possessions with VMI UNCG
2 Point Attempt 41.6% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.1% 32.8%
Player Fouled 20.2% 19.7%
Turnover 19.6% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 12.5% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken VMI UNCG
Shot Blocked 4.7% 2.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.4% 31.3%